Climate Change (or Global warming) PDF Print E-mail
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature has increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 100 years ending in 2005. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" due to the increase in anthropogenic (human induced) greenhouse gas concentrations such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane associated with industialisation. This has been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.

Climate model projections indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century. The uncertainty in this estimate arises from use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions and from use of models with differing climate sensitivity. Another uncertainty is how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe.

Increasing global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, likely including an expanse of the subtropical desert regions. Other likely effects include increases in the intensity of extreme weather events, changes in agricultural yields, modifications of trade routes, glacier retreat, species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors.

According to the Stern Report, published in 2006

  • All countries will be affected by climate change, but the poorest countries will suffer earliest and most.
  • Warming of 3 or 4C will result in many millions more people being flooded. By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced (as climate refugees) due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought.
  • Warming of 4C or more is likely to seriously affect global food production.
  • Warming of 2C could leave 15-40% species facing extinction.
  • Before the industrial revolution level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was 280 parts per million (ppm) CO2 equivalent (CO2e); the current level is 430ppm CO2e. The level should be limited to 450-550ppm CO2.
  • Anything higher would substantially increase risks of very harmful impacts. Anything lower would impose very high adjustment costs in the near term and might not even be feasible.
  • Deforestation is responsible for more emissions than the transport sector.
  • Climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.

The impending problems of climate change are intimately linked to the exploitative character of global capitalism and the associated conflicts over resources (such as oil, land, water) between indigenous, traditional and peasant peoples on the one hand, and state and national governments and transnational corporations on the other. This is especially pertinent for the poor of the Global South who face multiple injustices: they are the principal victims of neoliberal capitalism; they are at the frontline of the effects of climate change; they possess small carbon footprints; and they do not have the resources to mitigate against the effects of climate change. In addition, they will also feel the most acute effects of a newly greened neoliberal agenda that is becoming a key element in the management of the global economy, at the level of decision-making, political legitimation, and the creation of new processes of capital accumulation (e.g. trading in carbon credits, offsets and rights; green consumerism etc.). In addition to this, climate scientists have warned that the planet has approximately 100 months in which to radically reduce global carbon emissions before the planet’s climate reaches a tipping point that precipitates runaway climate change. As a range of challenges to this situation emerge, climate change is emerging as a new key terrain of struggle. In the UK this has taken two principal forms. First, direct action by groups such as Plane Stupid and Leave it in the Ground (e.g. actions against airport expansion such as the occupation of Stanstead airport’s runway and the hijacking of a coal train en route to Drax power station) articulate resistance in support of communities challenging fossil fuel extraction (e.g. open cast coal mining), critique government policy (and their market-based solutions to climate change), pressurise the government to change their climate policy, and show localised solidarity with distant others facing the effects of climate change. Second, there are climate adaptation initiaves such as Transition towns; local food economies; low- impact dwelling; and permaculture projects such as The Hive. In reality, both approaches are needed, hence since 2006 there have been annual Climate Camps ( at Drax power station in 2006; at Heathrow airport in 2007; and at Kingsnorth power station in 2008), which provide gatherings for people to discuss and practice alternatives to the carbon-based models of contemporary capitalism, plan future climate movement initiatives, and also practice direct action.


Links:

IPCC report PDF (download)

Nasa Climate change interactive page: http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/

Climate camp: www.climatecamp.org.uk

Transition Towns: www.transitiontowns.org

Plane Stupid: www.planestupid.com

Leave it in the Ground: www.leaveitintheground.org.uk


Film on Climate March, Glasgow, 2008